Modelling changing population distributions

Population growth for coastal districts 1979–2009, based on population counts from the 1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009 censuses. Dotted vertical lines show the census years.
Predicted population density in the coastal districts of Kenya for the four census years (1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009) (A) the whole study area and (B) close-ups around Mombasa. Grid cell resolution is 100 m at the equator, and grid cell values represent people per hectare

The study used available settlement datasets, historical census data and developed population distribution modelling methods to reconstruct population distribution changes over 30 years across the Kenyan Coast, a data-scarce area characterized by high population growth rates. The methodological challenges and opportunities associated with the production of gridded population distribution time-series were explored.

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