Unmet need for COVID-19 vaccination coverage

(A) spatial distribution of the COVID-19 vaccination sites (n=622), (B) population density distribution for >18years and (C) mean travel times to the vaccination centres
Modelled mean COVID-19 vaccination coverage at sub-national level; (A) before the forecast period and (B) at the end of the forecast period. The population unvaccinated (unmet need) (C) before forecast and (D) after forecast.

The average mean travel times to COVID-19 vaccination sites was found to be 75.5 minutes. Integration with population estimates showed an average of 87.2% of the adult population within an hour of a vaccination site. At national level, the coverage rate was 16.70% (95% CI 16.66 – 16.74) in December 2021 and 30.75% (95% CI 25.04 – 36.96) by the end of March 2022.  Approximately 21 million adults were still unvaccinated in December 2021 and, in the absence of accelerated vaccine uptake, over 17.2 million adults may not be vaccinated by end March 2022 nationally. These results highlight inequalities in vaccinations and efforts should be prioritized in hard-to-reach populations.

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