The study assessed the incidence of pediatric severe malaria admissions from 13 hospitals in East Africa from 2006 to 2020. From figure 4, the median fit for the Bayesian regression model is denoted by the thick black line, with 95% and 99% highest density intervals in dark and light blue, respectively. Grey points and vertical 95% HDIs give the model-estimated admission rates; intervals were not plotted for site-periods where a formal diagnosis of malaria phenotype was available for all patients. The condition of admitted malaria patients without a specific diagnosis of SMA, RD or CM was stochastically diagnosed in sub-models based on other indicative symptoms. Horizontal intervals represent the uncertainty in parasite prevalence calculated from a model that age-standardises parasite prevalence to the 2-10 years age range while accounting for sample size and correcting for the diagnostic method (corrected RDT surveys are indicated by closed points, microscopy by open circles).